Capital Gold Group Report: Gold powers through $1,000/oz; lifts oil, copper
By: ReutersLONDON - Gold rode a wave of technical momentum to top the psychologically significant $1 000/oz mark on Tuesday, with support from a weaker dollar also helping to lift oil and copper.
Precious metals silver and palladium also ventured to 2009 highs, as some investors concluded that measures taken by governments to boost credit and revive growth prospects were gaining traction - and in turn expectations for basic resource demand.
However, sceptics continued to warn about a mismatch between prices and actual demand, which threatened to bite gains.
Spot gold shot to $1 004,50/oz, the highest since March 2008 when the metal hit a record $1 030,80.
"Gold is a momentum-driven metal. When people start buying, everybody buys, and this move still has some momentum upwards," Standard Bank analyst Walter de Wet said.
US gold futures for December delivery rose to $1 009,40/oz, before easing to $1 006,80, versus Friday's close at $996,70/oz before the US long weekend.
Technical analysts had been calling for a $1 000-plus gold price for some time and momentum proved overwhelming, given the backdrop of dollar weakness against a basket of major currencies [FRX].
Renewed concern over the dollar's long-term status as the world's reserve currency sparked by a United Nations agency report on Monday and options-related euro buying also fuelled the broad-based dollar selling.
Investors were also seeing gold as a warning to stock market bulls and were fretting about the result of central banks and governments pumping billions of dollars into banking systems to boost growth.
"Gold is celebrating because the day when inflation might return is getting sooner rather than later," said Ashok Shah, chief investment officer at London and Capital.
"As long as the authorities are intent on not reversing their policies then gold will remain in demand and it will be wanted."
But the sustainability of the precious metal's rally above $1 000/oz, which also helped boost palladium and silver to 2009 highs, was in question as the metal has a poor track record of keeping gains above the key level.
Spot gold has now made three attempts to rise and stay above $1 000, including Tuesday's push. The market stayed above the key level for one day in February this year and three days in March 2008, when the record was hit.
"We are unconvinced that all the ingredients are in place for a sustained surge higher in gold," UBS analyst John Reade said in a note to clients.
OIL, METALS GAIN
Bullish fervour in gold rippled into oil, with dollar weakness also helping international benchmark US crude to trade above $70 a barrel after marking a 6,5% drop last week.
"As a dollar and inflation hedge, a portfolio diversification opportunity, an equities tag-along and a recovery play it has been very appealing," David Hufton with PVM said in a research note.
"It is the macroeconomic load factor that has been questioned of late. As a dollar hedge and portfolio diversifier oil remains attractive. It is the recovery play element that is in doubt."
Analysts said there were no real fundamental factors driving oil prices higher, with global oil product consumption remaining sluggish, oil inventories at historic highs and the OPEC widely expected to keep its official output target unchanged at its meeting on Wednesday.
Ahead of the meeting, Saudi Arabia's oil minister Ali al-Naimi said on Tuesday that the oil market is in good shape and both consumers and producers are happy with the current price.
Copper jumped to its highest in more than a week, buoyed by expectations of stronger economic and demand growth in coming months, but analysts said future price direction will depend on China.
Three-month copper on the London Metal Exchange was trading at $6 510/t from $6 324 at the close on Monday.
The metal used in power and construction touched $6 530/t, up about 60% since early April when markets started to think the worst of the recession could be over.
"The copper price reflecting the assumption of a strong recovery in real demand going into next year," said David Wilson, analyst at Societe Generale.
"But I would be a bit cautious as I think China will use a lot of the inventories they have built up this year."
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