Capital Gold Group Report: Huge Gold Demand and Lack of Supply To Cause Higher Prices in Coming Weeks
Dollar, oil, Russia eyed as traders weigh physical, investment gold demand
SAN FRANCISCO (MarketWatch) -- Gold futures fell Monday, with traders taking profit from last week's 5% rally and finding little indication for direction from the U.S. dollar and oil.
Gold futures for December delivery fell $4.90, or 0.6%, to $828.60 an
ounce on the New York Mercantile Exchange. Futures fell earlier to an
intraday low of $820.50. Gold ended last week's trading up 5.2%.
"Gold remains hesitant
and is not getting clear direction from the dollar which is essentially
flat," said Mark O'Byrne, executive director at Gold and Silver
Investments Ltd.
"Higher oil prices and
weakness in equity markets should result in gold remaining well bid as
this market session progresses, but given the degree of macroeconomic
and geopolitical uncertainty anything can happen in these markets in
the short term," he said in emailed comments.
Gold's slip
was limited by a mixed U.S. dollar, as the currency erased earlier
gains and moved slightly lower against the British pound. The pound
bought $1.8546, up 0.1%. But the dollar gained modestly against the
euro, with the European currency buying $1.4785.
Resales of U.S.
single-family homes and condominiums rose in July but inventories also
increased, reaching record levels, data showed Monday.
The dollar index, which tracks the value of the greenback against a basket of other major currencies, slid 0.2%.
Dollar-denominated gold prices tend to move in the opposite direction of the greenback.
Physical demand
But Julian Phillips, an analyst at GoldForecaster.com said he believes
the dollar is "having less and less effect at the moment as we run out
of time before the high season in gold begins in the last quarter."
Recent physical demand
for gold remains very robust in the U.S., India, the Middle East and
Asia, O'Byrne said. The U.S. Mint recently announced the suspension of
sales of some of its gold coins.
While some analysts said the issue is about a shortage of blanks to
create the coins, not a shortage of the raw material, O'Byrne said an
unprecedented level of demand and a lack of supply also played an
important role.
"The bottom line is
that this lack of supply and huge demand will result in materially
higher prices in the coming weeks," he said.
O'Byrne also pointed
out that the Commitment of Traders (COT) monthly report shows an
"unprecedented and phenomenal level of shorting in recent weeks -- and
this shorting was heavily concentrated amongst just a handful of
players."
For now, "the market
place is presently divided into two parts, the jewelers who have a
little time to buy before they need to together with investment demand
which waits for the price to be ready to rise, before they go in," said
Phillips in emailed comments.
"The other side are the
short term traders on Comex, who take opportunities on both the up and
down side of the market," he said. "Last week saw them sell until they
hit support below $800, then vigorous demand take the gold price back
up over $800."
"Right now they are
deciding whether to knock the price down again or have they hit too
large a support," he said. "This week will decide that."
Phillips doesn't believe that tension between Russia and the U.S. is affecting gold prices.
"As to international news affecting the gold price, I personally only
see news relevant to the monetary system and directly to gold buying or
selling as being of importance," he said. "Georgia and such troubles,
like Iraq, don't make people buy gold."
"It is becoming clearer
that the problems of the monetary system where they affect the future
value of the dollar are worsening, but are also affecting other
currencies," Phillips said.
In other commodities
trading, crude-oil futures edged higher but failed to hold the
$115-a-barrel level as traders weighed slowing demand against the risk
of supplies tied to Russia's conflict with Georgia.
Nymex crude for October delivery was 16 cents higher at $114.75 a barrel on Nymex.
On the stock market, U.S. shares dropped at Monday's start on worries about the financial sector.Capital Gold Group, gold group, gold, gold prices, gold news, gold coins, gold bullion, gold IRA, IRA gold
